Labour Backs the Petermander

In an extraordinary move the executive of the Labour Party in Wales has backed Peter Hain's proposal to rig elections to the National Assembly.

Previously National Assembly seats were linked to those to Westminster, with 40 first past the post seats and 20 regional list seats. With Westminster constituencies reduced to 30 the Assembly seats have been decoupled. Rather than freeze for all time the constituency boundaries to the existing 40 there has been an ongoing discussion on how we can organise electoral boundaries in the future.

The simplest method (though not without its pitfalls) is to elect 30 AMs by First Past the Post using the new 30 Westminster constituencies and the rest via regional lists, increasing the number elected in each region to six. This would have the advantage of making the system more representative. It would also have the side effect of reducing Labour's over representation - something that clearly exercises the mind of Peter Hain.

His counter proposal is to abolish the regional lists and elect 2 AMs from each Westminster constituency, thus handing 70% of the seats in the National Assembly to Labour. To say that there are grave doubts about this within the Labour Assembly group would be an understatement. Initially Carwyn Jones rejected such a scheme out of hand. But in a forced show of party unity Labour backed Hain's plan.

Welsh Labour is at one on this issue," said a joint statement from First Minister Carwyn Jones and Shadow Welsh Secretary Peter Hain after the meeting of the Welsh Labour executive.

It said the UK government had "absolutely no mandate" to change the voting system in Wales.

"Any attempt to do so without a clear mandate from the people of Wales would be deeply disrespectful to both them and the Welsh government," they said.

So there we have it - the Assembly Labour Group and the elected leader of the Labour Party in the National Assembly, elected by all Labour members, has to give way to the appointed Labour shadow Secretary of State in the name of party unity.

Once again Labour has proven that its interests come before that of the country, that the Welsh Party is subservient to appointed Westminster placemen. It its time that the people of Wales woke up to that reality and at the next election reduces Labour to a party of opposition, as clearly its incapable of standing up for Wales.

Hain's latest Petermander

I see that Peter Hain has revived his call for a change to the electoral system for the National Assembly for Wales. When he previously proposed this he said it was in the spirit of consensus and that there would be no advantage to Labour. This time around, in an article to the Labour Party Conference paper he comes clean.

http://home.freeuk.net/clpd/cb2011mon.pdf

In it he argues:

"Everyone is agreed on the need to avoid decoupling in Wales, and maintain the same boundaries for Assembly and Parliamentary constituencies."

That is a massively sweeping statement that has no clear backing. Many have suggested quite separate arrangements.

Prior to the referendum it was suggested by some that the present 2 constituency to 1 list member be retained and the National Assembly be reduced to 45 members. This was universally rejected by all the parties as it would have reduced the capacity for the Assembly to properly scrutinise the executive and would have considerably reduced the pool of members to chose members of the Welsh Government from.

It has been suggested that the 30 new Westminster constituencies be used to elect 30 members of the National Assembly - the remainder coming from 30 regional list members. Of course that would have the advantage of making the body more representative, not less as Hain suggests. It has the disadvantage that if Wales loses any more seats at Westminster that the number of members of the National Assembly would fall... precipitating yet another change in the electoral geography and/or system of election.

One option is no change, maintain the boundaries of the current Assembly constituencies indefinitely together with the current boundaries of the electoral regions and the ratio of members elected from constituencies and regions.

My preferred solution is an 80 member National Assembly elected by STV using local government as the building blocks for the constituencies. This would give stability and also enable people to identify more closely with their Assembly member.

STV is backed by Plaid Cymru, The Liberal Democrats, sections of the Labour Party, The Richard Commission and many non governmental bodies.

At present the National Assembly is made up of 40 MPs elected by first past the post, using UK parliamentary constituencies, together with a further 20 members elected via regional lists from 5 regions. The attempt is to create a more representative body. As it lacks the German "overhanging mandates" the system is not perfectly proportional. However it is considerably more proportional than first past the post.

In the last National Assembly election Labour gained 50% of the seats with just 42% of the vote.

Constituency vote:

Labour 28 seats and 42% of the constituency vote 70% of the seats
Conservative Party 6 seats and 25% of the constituency vote 15% of the seats
Plaid Cymru 5 seats and 19% of the constituency vote 12.5% of the seats
Liberal Democrats 1 seat and 11% of the constituency vote 2.5% of the seats
Others no seats and 3% of the constituency vote.

The list vote was as follows:

Conservative Party 8 seats and 23% of the list vote
Plaid Cymru 6 seats and 18% of the list vote
Liberal Democrats 4 seats and 8% of the list vote
Labour 2 seats and 37% of the list votes.
Others no seats and 14% of the list vote

Overall the result was:

Labour 30 seats, 42% of the vote 50% of the seats
Conservatives 14 seats 25% of the vote 23.34% of the seats
Plaid Cymru 11 seats 19% of the vote 18.33% of the seats
Liberal Democrats 5 seats 11% of the vote 8.33% of the seats


Not ideal but better than giving Labour a bonus of 70% of the seats - which would be the outcome of Peter Hain's proposals of two first past the post seats based on 30 Westminster constituencies.

The arguments against are neatly contained in Gareth Hughes' blog.

http://ogarethhughes.blogspot.com/


The arguments for STV are put here and suggestions for a sixty member National Assembly, the article also has links to the evidence given by the Campaign for a Welsh Parliament to the Richard Commission. The commission its self came down in favour of an 80 member Assembly elected by STV.

http://syniadau--buildinganindependentwales.blogspot.com/2009/11/stv-constituencies-in-wales.html

And for a possible arrangement of constituencies for 80 members

http://syniadau--buildinganindependentwales.blogspot.com/search?q=STV+80

Regional and Local Government in Wales

There has been much discussion about the nature of local government in Wales. We were left with a local government system that commonly is described as having unitary all purpose authorities that replaced the former two tier system. In actuality its more complex than that.

A quick bit of history. Wales was, until re-oganisation in 1974, divided into 13 county councils, 4 county borough councils, several hundred municipal boroughs, urban and rural districts, to say nothing of parish councils. These were reduced to 8 county councils, 37 borough/district councils and several hundred community councils. A further re-organisation in 1996 reduced the count of councils down to 22 unitary or most purpose authorities (together with the often forgotten community councils). This of course ignores the existing joint boards and ad hoc authorities that run the police, fire and health service in Wales, all of which were once within the realm of local government.

Few people doubt that the current structure is untenable. Many of our 22 unitary authorities are too small to be effective bodies for administering certain services, education for example. The current trend is to organise service delivery into regional consortia; usually with one authority acting as a lead authority in the field. We are seeing these evolve in waste disposal and education, as well as in other areas. The Local Government minister is urging councils to share chief executives and other senior staff, share payroll and other financial administrations etc. What is emerging is a patchwork of overlapping consortia, joint boards and ad hoc single purpose bodies running what were once part of local governmental.

For the public its sometimes very difficult to work out just who does what and who is responsible for what. In terms of democratic accountability these new bodies are sadly lacking. The recent move to executive governance in local authorities has created great powers of patronage with the leadership, membership of the consortia bodies – when they exist, is very much in their gift. I worry that this all diminishes the role of ordinary councillors and the wider public. I do not think that this is healthy.

Effectively we are now overlaying on the existing structure new bodies, all with different make ups, all serving different geographical areas and all reducing coherent and joined up government.

Other suggestions of sharing chief executives and senior officers creates more problems, what if the two or more local authorities have different policies and priorities, how do the shared officers deal with this conflict? Or do we end up with the officers making political decisions? If so whether democracy now?

I think its time to grasp the nettle and reform local government – yes it will cost money and in the time of recession can we afford it? Maybe the damage to democracy is to great to leave this much longer and permit the drift to unaccountable and fragmented government to continue.

Community Councils

My first step would be to strengthen the first level of government in Wales, the often neglected community councils. After reorganisation in 1974 they covered nearly all areas in Wales. Essentially nearly every community had a community council. These were originally the rural parishes and urban district councils. The areas of the four original county boroughs were exempt, and some small communities opted to share a council with a neighbouring larger community. In the former county borough councils no community councils were established, though their pre 1974 territory was divided into communities for electoral purposes. Currently communities can create and disband councils – though the threshold is now quite high.

As a first reform I would ensure that every area was covered by a community council. Which would mean that the existing communities in Cardiff, Swansea, Newport and Merthyr Tydfil would gain community councils, and those few communities with no population (such as the one covering the Port Talbot Steelworks) would be joined to their neighbouring community and share a community council.

Secondly I would elect these community councils by STV, either from a single electoral district or from a number of multi member electoral areas. In instances where more than one community shares a council then the constituent communities will elect a minimum of 3 members to the council (excepting those communities with no people!).

Thirdly for each community council there will be a parallel Youth Council, made up of young people aged between 11 and 18. The numbers and method of election/nomination I would leave to the community council. This youth council would be encouraged to take an active part in the affairs of the community, debating and sending recommendations to the community council. Ideally this would act both as conduit for youth views and as an incubator for new members of the community council.

Fourthly I would enable the county/county borough councils to devolve responsibility to community councils in their area, either to specific councils or to all community councils in their area.

Fifthly I would ensure that the cost of running community council elections was met completely by the county/county borough council.

Finally I would lower the voting age to 16 but retain the age where you can stand for election at 18.

I believe that this will strengthen grass roots democracy and encourage wider participation in local affairs.

County Councils

These would have their functions reduced leaving them as an intermediary authority providing services as:

• housing
• waste collection
• local planning
• recreation and leisure facilities
• public toilets*
• street lights*
• allotments*
• weights, measures & trading standards
• the library service & museums
• public footpaths*
• non trunk roads.
• local police scrutiny

* shared with Community Councils.

Like Community Councils I would elect the County Councils by STV. This will necessitate the creation of, at minimum, 3 member wards, I think the multi member nature of these wards is more likely to encourage electoral contests, which would be good for democracy. At present too high a percentage of seats are won "unopposed". Apart from separating Montgomeryshire from Powys necessitating the creation of a Brecon & Radnor County and de-merging the Cynon Valley from Rhondda Cynon Taff and merging it with Merthyr Tydfil to create a new Merthyr and Cynon Valleys council I would not alter the map. There is a great attachment to the old historic counties of in West Wales and I believe that they should be left in place, if with a slightly reduced role.

Regional Commissions

More generally my worry is democratic accountability, local government has been eroded everywhere, functions taken away and joint boards created with nominated and co-opted people. We have 7 health boards, 4 police authorities, 3 fire authorities and now education and waste disposal consortia. It seems to me that consortia have the greatest lack of democratic accountability yet devised for local government since the second world war.

Perhaps its time to bite the bullet and bring back into democratic control the police, fire and health authorities and create a new system of regional authorities taking on these functions - together with some functions from the current county councils. I would suggest keeping the existing authorities, with a few minor tweaks, but creating 5 regional bodies - lets call them Commissions, which would take over health & social services, fire, police, education (including further but not higher education), waste disposal, public transport, major roads and strategic planning. This would heal the democratic divide that has crept into public administration in the last 30 or so years, leaving community councils to be strengthened and the existing county and county borough councils to run more local services, like housing, local planning, leisure services and supporting local community organisations.

These regional commissions, would be elected by STV from multi member area, using the existing unitary authorities as the electoral areas as far as possible. I opt for direct election because I believe that nomination by another body, such as the existing unitary authorities would create split loyalties and increase the power of patronage for local government leaders. Direct election would give greater democratic legitimacy. The commissions would follow a committee structure, with 10 elected members and 5 members nominated as experts in the field, ie the Health Committee would have 5 co-opted members from the health service. Co-opted members would be voting members. Each subject committee would have a lead member, the lead members would in turn form a cabinet, which would be a co-ordinating and policy body. In addition to the subject committees there would be a number of committees, such as audit and budget. Membership of the committees would be voted on by the membership of the commission its self, by stv. The commission will meet annually to agree a budget, and monthly to approve the policy decisions of the committees and question lead members.

I would envisage the main subject committees mirroring the main areas of responsibility:

• Health
• Education (including further but not Higher Education)
• Waste Disposal/recycling
  
• Transport, including trunk roads but not designated Motorways and Motorway class roads.



• Strategic Planning and Economic Development



• Policing



• Fire and Civil Defence

Regional Commissioners would be full time and paid elected officials, they would be paid on a scale set by the same body that sets AMs pay, and there would be special allowances for chairs and lead members. The co-opted members would receive payment based on attendance, again at a rate set by the AMs pay body.

The regions would be:

The North

Comprising the unitary authorities of Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbighshire, Wrexham, Flintshire, I would also split Montgomeryshire from Powys, creating a new unitary/most purpose authrority and add it to the new Northern Regional Commission. The new commissions would have be elected as follows:

County	Population	Commissioners
Ynys Mon	68592	3
Gwynedd	119007	6
Conwy	110863	5
Denbighshire	96731	5
Wrexham	133559	6
Flintshire	149709	7
Montgomeryshire	63300 (estimated 2010)	3
Total	684791	35

Deheubarth

Comprising the unitary authorites of Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Brecon & Radnor (from Powys). The new Deheubarth Commission would be elected as follows:

County	Population	Commissioners
Ceredigion	76938	5
Pembrokeshire	117086	8
Carmarthen	102417 (estimated)	7
Llanelli	78300 (estimated)	5
Brecon & Radnorshire	68013 (estimated)	5
Total	442815	30

Swansea Bay

Comprising the unitary authorities of Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Brigend. The new Swansea Bay Commission would be elected as follows:

County	Population	Commissioners
Bridgend	134564	8
Neath	72543	4
Port Talbot	64770	4
Swansea Gower	96364	6
Swansea Tawe	134943	8
Total	504457	30

East Glamorgan

Comprising the Unitary Authorities of Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan, Rhondda Taff Ely, Merthyr & Cynon Valleys. I would take the Cynon Valley from Rhondda Cynon Taff and merge with Merthyr Tydfil to make two new Unitary Authorities. The East Glamorgan Commission would be elected as follows:

County	Population	Commissioners
Cardiff South West	113836	6
Cardiff North Central	125758	7
Cardiff South East	96442	5
Vale of Glamorgan	124976	7
Rhondda	85118	5
Taff Ely	96791	5
Merthyr	55699	3
Cynon Valley	58047	3
Total	756038	41

Gwent

Comprising the Unitary Authorities of Newport, Monmouthshire, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent and Caerffili. The Gwent Commission would be elected as follows:

County	Population	Commissioners
Newport East	65459	4
Newport West	74896	5
Monmouthshire	88089	5
Torfaen	90533	6
Blaenau Gwent	68368	4
Caerffili	83306	5
Islwyn	89431	6
Total	561420	35

Where now for Plaid part 2.

Well the election has come and gone, Labour have half the seats and probably will hold on to that position for the next 5 years.   Plaid have slid back to third position in the lottery that is the National Assembly electoral system, but firmly in third place in terms of the votes.

What next?   It has been clear since the election just how much the drive for greater powers for the people of Wales was provided by the presence of Plaid in the Welsh Government.   Labour's equivocation on taxation and is belated requests for greater powers over the planning of energy generation prove it.  There are those that call for a swift return of Plaid to government - and I understand that.  Plaid was the convenient excuse used by those in Labour who believe that the interests of the people of Wales is best served by increasing the powers of our National Assembly, an excuse they could use on their more reluctant members.   However I think a quick return to government would be a mistake.  We aren't ready as yet.  While I do not feel that the election was the disaster that some paint, I feel that the party does need a period to regroup and reflect on where we went wrong.  Clearly a change of leader is now inevitable, and it needs to come within 18 months in my view.  The new leader will need time to bed themselves down and gain recognition.  Any longer and we will see what is perceived as a lame duck leadership become a serious impediment to our advancement.

Where we went wrong?  So difficult to say, a few hundred more votes in the right places would have seen us retain more seats, if on a lower vote than the last National Assembly elections..... but that way complacency lies.   We have to get our message out there - the message that independence is right for Wales and is the only way that Wales can recover.  As part of the British Union Wales is peripheral.  It is due to disinterested neglect rather than malice that we have consistently lost out economically and politically, we are just to small to matter and politically insignificant.    The only way we are ever going to improve the economy of Wales is if we are given the economic leavers, and that can only come from a much enhanced devolution settlement if not out right independence.   For the party to build  it will have to learn not to shy away from independence, not make it a distant political goal, but one central to our vision for the future, not in 5 years time maybe, but in 10 or 15 and no more - not at some point in the remote future.  We need to build on the Wales Can website and the ideas within it, we need to show each time how independence will benefit us.

It is quite likely that some of our votes will go as a result of this, but in the long run, if we make the case, and make it convincingly, then we will be offering people something genuinely different.  We will be offering a chance for us to take control of our own destiny, not because we are power mad separatists but because with the leavers in our hands we can build a better Wales.